Studies in backstepped F #3

In my previous post I’d started to explore what happens if orange plays X-up then circles beneath rather than above. My general feeling is that this is bad for orange but it cannot be instantly ruled out. Orange L5 on move 3 is a bad response, as we saw, since violet can block it with impunity & win handsomely. Orange N, on the other hand, cannot be blocked without violet getting into serious trouble. With ideal packing on both sides, I believe violet still wins by 1 point: here’s my packing:

Violet 61, Orange 60

If there’s an improved packing for either side I’d like to know, as it obviously makes a huge difference in a game this close to a tie.

Moves:

1. F – X
2. X – Y
3. N – N
4. W – Z5
5. P – 1
6. L5 – Z4
7. 1 – V3
8. I2 – L4 and the rest is packing

Obviously on move 4 violet must ignore orange N & instead wrap around the right with W or Z5. I think those lines do not obviously favour either side, but need to investigate further.

The other question here is whether violet N on move 3 is good. I can’t see any other obvious move, but I may be wrong.